Brazil shuts its online betting market
With just over a week to go before the first round of the presidential election on 4 October, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed a provisional measure on Friday 25 September banning fixed-odds sports betting and digital casinos. According to the Financial Times, the measure takes effect as soon as it is published. Congress must nevertheless approve it within 120 days, failing which it will lapse.
The Brazilian president likened the phenomenon to a cancer. He described gambling as having spiralled out of control and drew a parallel with the early days of crack cocaine in the country. Ministers are also due to present a separate bill providing for prison sentences of up to six years for offences.
In Brazil, operators have condemned the measure. They are threatening legal challenges and expect compensation claims running into billions of dollars. André Gelfi, Chief Executive of Betsson Group, argues that a ban does not eliminate demand: in his view, it risks pushing players towards illegal and offshore operators, with no protection, no taxation and no oversight.
In New York, Polymarket goes on the offensive
In the United States, a new front opened on Thursday 24 September. New York State Attorney General Letitia James brought an action against Polymarket, accusing the platform of breaching New York law by promoting illegal gambling.
The response came that same evening. Polymarket sued Letitia James and other state officials in federal court in Manhattan to prevent them from regulating its prediction market. The platform holds federal approval: in 2025 it acquired QCX, a regulated entity, and then returned to US users in December 2025. It has since operated through Polymarket US, recognised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market, with access varying from state to state. In 2022, the same CFTC fined it $1.4m (around €1.2m) for operating without registration.
France: a $128m market on the 2027 presidential election
Polymarket’s presence in France extends well beyond a circle of insiders. As of 6 September, the market dedicated to the next French presidential election showed $128,026,232 in trading volume, or around €112m, according to the platform’s public data. The cumulative total had already exceeded $111m by mid-July. It concerns an election scheduled for April 2027 and remains legally inaccessible from France.
Since November 2024, the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), France’s gambling regulator, has held that Polymarket offers gambling illegally. Following an initial formal notice, the platform introduced geoblocking of transactions, but the site remained viewable. In June, it recorded 578,751 visits and 205,057 unique visitors in France, according to the regulator.
On 16 July, the President of the ANJ ordered internet service providers to block the site entirely. The regulator considers that the real-time display of odds on the homepage amounts to advertising an unauthorised activity, an offence punishable by a €100,000 fine. It also points to the lack of identity checks on users, which rules out any age verification, tax monitoring or checks on the integrity of participants.
The integrity of certain markets is also in question. In April, a Météo-France weather sensor at Roissy airport was allegedly tampered with, reportedly allowing users to make money by betting on temperatures. On 4 May, the cybercrime section of the Paris public prosecutor’s office opened an investigation, which has been entrusted to the Office anti-cybercriminalité, France’s national cybercrime unit.
The block’s reach remains limited. Le Monde notes that simply changing DNS server or using a VPN is enough to get around it. The day after the decision, several media outlets also found that Polymarket’s mobile app was still accessible from France.
On 21 August, Polymarket announced that it had taken legal action in France, without specifying the nature of the proceedings.
Europe steps up restrictions
France is not an isolated case. In May 2026, Spain blocked Polymarket and its rival Kalshi under its gambling legislation. According to the ANJ, Germany, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Switzerland, Greece, Ukraine and the Czech Republic have also restricted or blocked prediction markets on their territory.
The same product is therefore treated as a regulated market in the United States and as illegal gambling across much of Europe. This discrepancy stems from the hybrid nature of these platforms, which sit halfway between a derivative instrument and a bet.
Bet or financial product: a legal classification still pending
Polymarket falls under Panamanian law. Each market offers a binary outcome: yes or no. A share in the winning outcome is worth $1 at expiry, a share in the losing outcome is worth nothing, and the price of each share reflects the probability participants assign to the event. Execution runs through smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain. The decentralised oracle UMA verifies the outcome of the event, and winnings are then paid out in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
According to Pauline Pailler, Professor of Private Law at Université Paris Cité, these contracts on future events closely resemble derivative instruments and could fall under financial markets law, notably the MiFID II directive. Yet they currently escape market abuse regulation. She cites the conviction of an American soldier for fraud: he had bet on the fall of Nicolás Maduro despite having taken part in planning the operation.
Financial firepower backed by the White House
In the face of these offensives, Polymarket has considerable resources. According to Les Echos, the platform has raised $1bn (around €870m) in a round led by 1789 Capital, the venture capital fund co-founded by Donald Trump Jr. His fund is contributing $300m to the round, bringing its total investment to $500m. Polymarket is now valued at $21bn (around €18.4bn), up 40% since April.
Land-based casinos: a new competitor outside the regulatory framework
For casino and resort operators, these decisions go beyond the regulatory debate alone. According to the ANJ, prediction markets are attracting audiences who have so far shown little interest in either online betting or casinos. These platforms are therefore capturing new demand, at a time when French casino operators, led by Barrière, are already opposing the opening up of online casinos. At Barrière, gaming remains the main economic engine of a model that combines casinos with luxury hospitality.
The sector is consolidating at the same time, as shown by Lottomatica’s takeover of CIRSA and Merkur’s acquisition of Company Française de Casinos. These regulated operators are subject to compliance, tax and player-protection obligations, obligations that prediction markets are contesting in the courts. La Tribune de l’Hôtellerie had previously drawn a parallel between the logic of these platforms, which consists of betting on whether an event will occur, and that of short-selling funds in the Accor-Grizzly affair.
For executives and investors in the sector, the issue is not simply whether to ban or authorise these platforms. The question is whether they will fall under gambling law or financial law. That classification will determine the terms of competition with the industry’s established gaming players.
At a glance by The Hospitality Tribune
Global regulators move against online betting and prediction markets
Brazil: provisional order bans fixed-odds sports betting and online casinos, Congress has 120 days to approve it
Brazil’s online betting operators generated R$36.9bn (≈ €6.25bn) in revenue last year
New York AG Letitia James sues Polymarket, which files a countersuit in Manhattan federal court
France: ANJ imposed a full administrative block in July, and Polymarket is challenging it in court
Polymarket raises $1bn led by 1789 Capital (Donald Trump Jr) at a $21bn valuation
