The Global Business Travel Association and ALTOUR, a subsidiary of Internova Travel Group, have published their annual business travel cost forecast, produced with economic research firm Avrio Institute. The starting point is a market jolted out of its 2025 torpor by a brutal geopolitical shock: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, following the conflict with Iran, sent Brent crude soaring to nearly $138 a barrel and jet fuel above $230, before a de-escalation from mid-year onwards.
This energy shock rippled across the entire business travel chain, from airfares to catering spend at seminars. The report, however, draws a clear distinction between two timeframes: 2026, described as a year of high costs, and 2027, presented as a year of partial easing, without a return to 2025 prices. The authors stress the need for travel buyers to think category by category and region by region, rather than relying on global averages.
The airline sector carries the greatest volatility. The global weighted average airfare is expected to rise 4.7% in 2026 to reach $756, with economy class up 8.7% and premium class up 9.5%. The aircraft order book now represents around 60% of the active fleet, reflecting a structural capacity shortfall estimated at 3,170 aircraft. Fare growth is then expected to slow to 1.5% in 2027. Regionally, North America posts the steepest 2026 increase at 8.2%, followed by Europe, the Middle East and Africa at 8%, while Latin America remains the calmest region, at 3%.
For hospitality, the dynamic runs in the opposite direction to air travel: demand is strong, but abundant new supply is limiting room rate growth. The global average daily rate is expected to rise 3.7% in 2026, to $168, then just 1.8% in 2027, to $171. This moderation reflects a hotel construction pipeline that reached a record level at the end of 2025, with nearly 15,922 projects representing 2.4 million rooms, 39% of them in the United States alone. Around 2,600 new hotels are expected to open each year in 2026 and 2027.
Regional gaps are widening sharply within hospitality. Latin America records the steepest rate growth in 2026, at 9.5%, driven by demand outpacing a still-limited hotel pipeline. Asia-Pacific follows at 5%, North America at 3.2%, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa remain nearly flat, at 0.6%, ahead of total stagnation forecast for 2027. The recovery in genuine business demand, as distinct from the leisure and group segments driving most of the growth, remains slower than expected.
Ground transportation remains the most stable segment, governed more by rental companies’ discipline over fleet sizes than by swings in demand. The global average daily rate is expected to rise 3.6% in 2026 before easing slightly in 2027. Meetings and events, meanwhile, show a distinctive dynamic: average daily cost per delegate is expected to grow moderately, but catering and event production are the line items with the strongest inflation, between 5% and 10% depending on category, above the general away-from-home food index.
The report also identifies the main risk factors that could derail this normalisation scenario: a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a fresh spike in jet fuel prices, further aircraft delivery delays, a faster-than-expected rise in sustainable aviation fuel costs, or a new bout of currency volatility. GBTA had already highlighted, in a previous study, the growing role of structured tenders in corporate travel purchasing strategies, a trend this new report implicitly confirms: cost visibility is becoming a strategic issue for both finance departments and the hoteliers negotiating with them.
For hotel operators, the message is twofold. On one hand, robust corporate and group demand, combined with slowing airfare growth, could ease pressure on corporate travel budgets and support bookings. On the other, wage cost pressure, described by the report’s authors as durable and not reversible, will continue to weigh on property margins, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where hotel recruitment needs remain substantial. ALTOUR, for its part, continues to strengthen its business travel teams, in a context where transactional data is becoming a commercial argument in its own right with corporate buyers.
At a Glance
2027 Global Business Travel Forecast — GBTA & ALTOUR – Global blended airfare: $756 in 2026 (+4.7%), $767 in 2027 (+1.46%) – Global hotel ADR: $168 in 2026 (+3.7%), $171 in 2027 (+1.8%) – Global ground transportation ADR: $46.50 in 2026 (+3.6%), $46.10 in 2027 (-0.9%) – Meetings daily average cost per delegate: $263 in 2026 (+3%), $267 in 2027 (+1.5%) – Global construction pipeline (late 2025): 15,922 projects / 2.4 million rooms – Jet fuel forecast: $3.37/gallon in 2026 easing to $2.86/gallon in 2027
